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Friday Estimates + Updated 3 Day Forecasts (January 4-6,2008)

FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1 National Treasure 2: Book of Secrets Disney $6.375M
2 Juno Fox Searchlight $5.21M
3 I Am Legend Warner Bros. $5.2M
4 One Missed Call Warner Bros. $5.2M
5 Alvin & The Chipmunks New Regency/Fox $4.635M
6 P.S. I Love You Warner Bros. $2.65M
7 Charlie Wilson’s War Universal $2.55M
8 The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep Sony $1.875M
9 Sweeney Todd Paramount/DreamWorks $1.75M
10 Atonement Focus $1.49M
11 Alien Vs. Predator - Requeim Fox $1.385M

REVISED WEEKEND ESTIMATES (Saturday Update)

1 National Treasure 2: Book of Secrets Disney $18.9M
2 Alvin & The Chipmunks New Regency/Fox $16M
3 Juno Fox Searchlight $15.4M
4 I Am Legend Warner Bros. $14.9M
5 One Missed Call Warner Bros. $13.5M

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2008 Big Movie Preview

Cloverfield
Monsters attack the Statue of Liberty in “Cloverfield” - January 18th

JANUARY

January 18th
Cloverfield” – Paramount’s hush-hush film from director Matt Reeves is about a monster attack in New York city.

January 25th
Rambo IV” – Sylvester Stallone returns for a fourth and hopefully final installment to the franchise.

Jumper
Samuel L. Jackson in “Jumper” - February 14th

FEBRUARY

February 14th
Jumper” – Valentines Day is the target date for New Regency’s “Jumper” starring Hayden Christensen, Samuel L. Jackson and Rachel Bilson. They’ve teamed with “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” director Doug Liman and face off against Step Up 2 and the Universal comedy “Definitely, Maybe” starring Ryan Reynolds and Mrs. Borat (Isla Fisher)

February 15th
Vantage Point” – Director Pete Travis takes a look at a presidential assassination from several viewpoints in this political action-thriller Sony – Dennis Quaid, Matthew Fox and Forest Whitaker star.

February 29th

Babylon A.D.” – French director Mathieu Kassovitz enlists Vin Diesel and fellow frenchie Gerard Depardieu in this 20th Century Fox about a human host that will produce a genetically modified Messiah thanks to a religious cult.

Semi-Pro” – Will Ferrell and Woody Harrelson play semi-professional basketball players for New Line.

10,000 B.C.
Roland Emmerich’s CGI film “10,000 B.C.” - March 7th

MARCH

March 7th
10,000 B.C.” – Following up box office smash hit “The Day After Tomorrow,” German director Roland Emmerich will use as much CGI as possible in this prehistoric action flick for Warner Bros.

March 14th
Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who” – An all-star cast of voices teams up for the big screen debut of Horton with Jim Carrey as ‘Horton’ and Steve Carell as ‘The May of Who-Ville’ -20th Century Fox will release.

March 28th
21” – Kate Bosworth, Kevin Spacey and Laurence Fishburne star in a film about six MIT students who are trained by their professeor in the art of card-counting and head to Vegas casinos where they end up winning millions of dollars.

Stop Loss” – a powerful film from director Kimberly Peirce (“Boys Don’t Cry”) starring Ryan Phillippe and Joseph Gordon-Levitt which looks at American soldiers fighting in Iraq who refuse to go back to the fighting after their tours of duty are over.

Baby Mama
Tina Fey and Amy Poehler in “Baby Mama” - April 18th

APRIL

April 18th
Baby Mama” – Saturday Night Live stars Tina Fey and Amy Poehler are a career woman and a surrogate mother respectively starring in this comedy for Universal.

Made of Honor
Patrick Dempsey stars in “Made of Honor” - May 2nd

MAY

May 2nd
Made of Honor” – This Sony comedy finds Patrick Dempsey or the ‘new Hugh Grant’ as he’s being called is a serial dater who is asked by his best friend Michelle Monaghan (“The Heartbreak Kid”) to be her ‘maid of honor.’

Iron Man” – Robert Downey Jr. stars in the Paramount distributed Marvel comic film directed by Jon Favreau.

May 9th
Speed Racer” – the Wachowskis cast Emile Hirsch as ‘Speed Racer’ a skilled young car driver who faces the race of his life. Christina Ricci and Matthew Fox co-star in this Warner Bros. release.

May 16th
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian” – Disney launches the second film in the 4 film long franchise.

May 23rd
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull” – Harrison Ford, George Lucas and director Steven Spielberg team up for the 4th time

May 30th
Starship Dave” – Eddie Murphy stars as a crew of tiny aliens who look just like humans come to New York in a ship resembling a human being in the hopes of saving their home planet.

Sex and the City: The Movie” - The stars of the HBO series return to the big screen in a film written and directed by Michael Patrick King and New Line will release.

Kung Fu Panda
Jack Black’s voice stars in “Kung Fu Panda” - June 6th

JUNE

June 6th
Kung Fu Panda” – Jack Black, Angelina Jolie and Dustin Hoffman voice cartoon Pandas for DreamWorks

You Don’t Mess with the Zohan” – Adam Sandler re-teams with director Dennis Dugan in a Sony film about an Israeli Mossad agent who orchestrates a scenario where he is able to move to New York and reinvent himself as a hairstylist.

June 13th
The Incredible Hulk” – Edward Norton is ‘Bruce Banner’ in this Universal comic-inspired action flick.

The Happening” – M. Night Shyamalan directs a probably awful film about a family on the run after a natural disaster threatens planet Earth. The film stars Mark Wahlberg, Zooey Deschanel and will be released by 20th Century Fox.

June 20th
Get Smart” - Steve Carell, Anne Hathaway and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson team up for Warner Bros. in the reamke of this 1960’s TV classic

June 27th
Wanted” – Angelina Jolie trains James McAvoy to become an assasin in this Timur Bekmambetov action film for Universal.

WALL·E” – Andrew Stanton, the writer/director from “Finding Nemo” give us an animated tale about a robot in the year 2700. Pixar is creating and Disney distributing.

Hancock
Will Smith is a troubled super-hero in “Hancock” - July 2nd

JULY

July 2nd
Hancock” (also known as “Tonight, He Comes”) – Will Smith is Mr. 4th of July and this year should be no exception as he stars in the Vincent Ngo comic book spin. Will Smith will play a hard-living superhero who falls out of favor with the public and enters into a questionable relationship with his wife played by Charlize Theron. Peter Berg (“Friday Night Lights” and “The Kingdom”) directs.

July 11th
Hellboy 2” – Guillermo del Toro and Ron Perlman (’Hellboy’) reteam for Sony in this dark comic book franchise.

July 18th
The Dark Knight” – after a thrilling success with “Batman BeginsChristopher Nolan reteams with Christian Bale and Morgan Freeman for Warner Bros. Heath Ledger joins as ‘The Joker’

Mamma Mia!” – Universal casts Meryl Streep, Pierce Brosnan in this ABBA inspired musical film.

July 25th
Step Brothers” – “Talladega Nights” veterans Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly re-team with director Adam McKay and Sony in this movie about two spoiled men who get into a sibling rivalry after their parents marry.

X Files 2” – Fox sends David Duchovny and Gillian Anderson out in the field for the sequel to the original film derived from the long running TV show.

The Mummy- Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
Brendan Fraser returns in “The Mummy - Tomb of the Dragon Emperor” - August 1st

AUGUST

August 1st
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor” – Brendan Fraser (this time with Maria Bello – no Rachel Weisz on board) join forces for Universal in this action packed Rob Cohen directed film.

August 8th
South of the Border” – Awful director Raja Gosnell (”Scooby Doo“) directs Drew Barrymore and a boat load of Mexican chihuahua dogs

Valkyrie
Tom Cruise stars in “Valkyrie” - October 3rd

OCTOBER

October 3rd
Valkyrie” – Bryan Singer directs the first United Artists release starring Tom Cruise as a Nazi colonel who teams with other ranking officers in an attempt to kill Adolf Hitler.

High School Musical 3: Senior Year” – Senior Year will find Troy (Zac Efron) and Gabriella (Vanessa Hudgens) stressing out over their impending separation once graduation sends everybody on their merry ways. Sure enough, East High’s senior class will stage one last musical “reflecting their experiences, hopes and fears about the future.”

NOVEMBER

November 7th
James Bond #22” – Sony and MGM will combine to release the 22nd installment of the ‘James Bond’ franchise. This time Daniel Craig repeats his role as James Bond and co-stars Gemma Amerton, Giancarlo Giannini, Dame Judi Dench and Jesper Christensen join him.

November 21st
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” – Warner Bros. cashes in on their long running franchise that has in 5 films out grossed more than all 3 ‘Lord of the Rings’ films, all 6 ‘Star Wars’ films and all 22 ‘James Bond’ films.

The Day the Earth Stood Still
Jennifer Connelly and Keanu Reeves remake “The Day the Earth Stood Still” - December 12th

DECEMBER

December 12th
The Day the Earth Stood Still” – the beautiful Jennifer Connelly is paired with Keanu Reeves (as ‘Klaatu’) in this 20th Century Fox film remake of the 1951 sci-fi classic.

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Friday Estimates + 3 Day Forecasts (Dec 14-16)

Alvin and the Chimpmunks
Will Smith’s I AM LEGEND and Jason Lee and some squirells help revive a slumping Winter box office

FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1 I Am Legend Warner Bros.$29.5M
2 Alvin & The Chipmunks New Regency/Fox $13.3M
3 The Golden Compass New Line $2.63M
4 Enchanted Disney $1.615M
5 No Country For Old Men Miramax$845K
6 This Christmas Sony/Screen Gems $745K
7 Fred Claus Warner Bros. $715K
8 The Perfect Holiday Yari Film Group$700K
9 August Rush Warner Bros. $550K
10 Atonement Focus Features $535K
11 Awake MGM/Weinstein $410K
12 Beowulf Paramount $400K
13 Juno Fox Searchlight $400K
14 Hitman Fox $345K

REVISED WEEKEND ESTIMATES

1 I Am Legend Warner Bros.$78M
2 Alvin & The Chipmunks New Regency/Fox $40M
3 The Golden Compass New Line $9.3M
4 Enchanted Disney $6M
5 No Country For Old Men Miramax$2.7M
6 This Christmas Sony/Screen Gems $2.5M
7 Fred Claus Warner Bros. $2.5M
8 The Perfect Holiday Yari Film Group$1.9M
9 August Rush Warner Bros. $1.8M
10 Atonement Focus Features $1.5M
11 Awake MGM/Weinstein $1.25M
12 Beowulf Paramount $1.2M
13 Juno Fox Searchlight $1.1M
14 Hitman Fox $800K

NOTES

I AM LEGEND - a huge Friday opening indicating that Will Smith does have some magical powers and that East coast weather and an overall slump at the box-office have no effect on those powers. A big number nearing $80M for the three day weekend is in store for the mega-star and for Warner Bros.

ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS - New Regency’s head honcho Bob Harper starts off his new reign atop the studio as a miracle worker. The kiddie film co-financed by Arnon Milchan’s New Regency and 20th Century Fox broke all total weekend expectations on Friday alone with $13.3M (better than Fox’s last Christmas family picture “Night at the Museum” which had an opening Friday of $12.1M, a first weekend of $30.4M and grossed a domestic total box office of $251M for the studio.) With an even bigger Saturday in store for Alvin & the Squirrells, its likely this film can break Mr. & Mrs. Smith numbers for the wekeend becoming New Regency’s biggest film ever as the studio anticipates a strong hold next weekend for the family film (Night at the Museum’s 2nd Friday was bigger than its first.) This is a ridiculous financial coup for the Jason Lee starring film. I don’t think there’s anyone in the business who isn’t in shock.

THE PERFECT HOLIDAY - given the lack of experience and clout that Yari Film Group has distributing domestically, the result of $2M for the weeekend is about what you’d expect from a film like this. Let’s see if they can hold on to screens past Christmas.

ATONEMENT - a huge Friday box office for the art-house film that is sure to break out due to its positive buzz and 7 Golden Globe nominations. Earning nearly $5K per screen on a Friday for this film is enormous and multiplied by 117 screens, this film should have a healthy box office this weekend and should platform on to at least 200 more screens next week.

JUNO - Fox Searchlight seem unprepared for the unbelievable $10K per screen Friday box office this sleeper hit from Jason Reitman is doing. On just 40 screens, a $10K per theater average for a Friday equals $400K and means over a $1M for the weekend. These numbers are scary good and dwarf what Little Miss Sunshine did in its second weekend - ($7.3K per screen on Friday and about $1.2M on 58 screens.)

by admin

Handicapping the Oscar Race - November Releases

NOVEMBER

American Gangster
American Gangster looks like a promising Oscar contender

American Gangster – (November 2, 2007) Oscar winners Ridley Scott, Russell Crowe, Denzel Washington, Cuba Gooding Jr., producer Brian Grazer and writer Stephen Zaillian (I think that only the caterer didn’t win an Oscar already on this film’s crew) combine in Universal’s sure-fire Oscar bonanza about 1970’s heroin crime-lord Frank Lucas and the efforts to bring him to justice.

Lions for Lambs – (November 9, 2007) director Robert Redford (Oscar winner) stars alongside Meryl Streep, Tom Cruise, Derek Luke and talented newcomer Louise Linton in a powerful political and military drama written by Matthew Michael Carnahan (“The Kingdom”) This is the first contender film out from Tom Cruise and Paula Wagner’s United Artists label and features cinematography by Philippe Rousselot (Oscar for “A River Runs Through It” and 2 nominations) and music by Mark Isham (nominated for an Oscar for “A River Runs Through It.”) This film should be considered a contender until proven otherwise.

Justin Timberlake
Justin Timberlake in Southland Tales from Richard Kelly

Southland Tales – (November 9, 2007) USC graduate and director Richard Kelly (also wrote “Domino”)- the brainchild behind Donnie Darko - was nominated for a Golden Palm in Cannes for this film that stars an eclectic cast that includes Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Cheri Oteri, Mandy Moore, Seann William Scott, Justin Timberlake and Sarah Michelle Gellar. The film is a three day tale set in Los Angeles following a nuclear attack in 2005 that wipes out the state of Texas and parts of California. While the film might get strong reviews for the courage of director Kelly, the off-the-wall plot line and apparently non-streamlined story structure might be too much for Academy voters to embrace. Nonetheless, the film will be released by Universal and an Academy push may be inevitable because of the film’s relative success in Cannes earlier in the year.

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