Friday Estimates + 3 Day Forecasts (Dec 14-16)
Will Smith’s I AM LEGEND and Jason Lee and some squirells help revive a slumping Winter box office
FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1 I Am Legend Warner Bros.$29.5M
2 Alvin & The Chipmunks New Regency/Fox $13.3M
3 The Golden Compass New Line $2.63M
4 Enchanted Disney $1.615M
5 No Country For Old Men Miramax$845K
6 This Christmas Sony/Screen Gems $745K
7 Fred Claus Warner Bros. $715K
8 The Perfect Holiday Yari Film Group$700K
9 August Rush Warner Bros. $550K
10 Atonement Focus Features $535K
11 Awake MGM/Weinstein $410K
12 Beowulf Paramount $400K
13 Juno Fox Searchlight $400K
14 Hitman Fox $345K
REVISED WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1 I Am Legend Warner Bros.$78M
2 Alvin & The Chipmunks New Regency/Fox $40M
3 The Golden Compass New Line $9.3M
4 Enchanted Disney $6M
5 No Country For Old Men Miramax$2.7M
6 This Christmas Sony/Screen Gems $2.5M
7 Fred Claus Warner Bros. $2.5M
8 The Perfect Holiday Yari Film Group$1.9M
9 August Rush Warner Bros. $1.8M
10 Atonement Focus Features $1.5M
11 Awake MGM/Weinstein $1.25M
12 Beowulf Paramount $1.2M
13 Juno Fox Searchlight $1.1M
14 Hitman Fox $800K
NOTES
I AM LEGEND – a huge Friday opening indicating that Will Smith does have some magical powers and that East coast weather and an overall slump at the box-office have no effect on those powers. A big number nearing $80M for the three day weekend is in store for the mega-star and for Warner Bros.
ALVIN & THE CHIPMUNKS – New Regency’s head honcho Bob Harper starts off his new reign atop the studio as a miracle worker. The kiddie film co-financed by Arnon Milchan’s New Regency and 20th Century Fox broke all total weekend expectations on Friday alone with $13.3M (better than Fox’s last Christmas family picture “Night at the Museum” which had an opening Friday of $12.1M, a first weekend of $30.4M and grossed a domestic total box office of $251M for the studio.) With an even bigger Saturday in store for Alvin & the Squirrells, its likely this film can break Mr. & Mrs. Smith numbers for the wekeend becoming New Regency’s biggest film ever as the studio anticipates a strong hold next weekend for the family film (Night at the Museum’s 2nd Friday was bigger than its first.) This is a ridiculous financial coup for the Jason Lee starring film. I don’t think there’s anyone in the business who isn’t in shock.
THE PERFECT HOLIDAY – given the lack of experience and clout that Yari Film Group has distributing domestically, the result of $2M for the weeekend is about what you’d expect from a film like this. Let’s see if they can hold on to screens past Christmas.
ATONEMENT – a huge Friday box office for the art-house film that is sure to break out due to its positive buzz and 7 Golden Globe nominations. Earning nearly $5K per screen on a Friday for this film is enormous and multiplied by 117 screens, this film should have a healthy box office this weekend and should platform on to at least 200 more screens next week.
JUNO – Fox Searchlight seem unprepared for the unbelievable $10K per screen Friday box office this sleeper hit from Jason Reitman is doing. On just 40 screens, a $10K per theater average for a Friday equals $400K and means over a $1M for the weekend. These numbers are scary good and dwarf what Little Miss Sunshine did in its second weekend – ($7.3K per screen on Friday and about $1.2M on 58 screens.)
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