There goes my appetite for Halloween candy!

Lionsgate is so smart. They’ve been quick, efficient and smart with the SAW franchise and are now releasing Saw IV in time for Halloween 2007.

In fact, they are so smart that they forced the Rob Zombie directed Halloween (2007) (Also known asHalloween 9) to be released a month early by Dimension on August 31st.

The 4th installment of the Saw franchise in so many years (Saw - 2004, Saw II – 2005, Saw III – 2006) is a testament to calendar dating and marketing all rolled up in one.

That’s why its easy to predict that on October 26th through October 31st Saw IV will earn between $30 and $35 million and finish with a total of around $70-90 million and it need not be a good film.

This is why studio development is stupid? Churn these films out. Have the date on the calendar and work towards that date…. If you know what you are doing…

the only challenger this year to the Saw throne at the end of October comes from Steve Carrell and director Peter Hedges (wrote the Hugh Grant film About a Boy and directed and wrote Pieces of April which saw Katie Holmes getting naked…) in the form of Dan In Real Life. This is the kind of movie that I want to see is I am all about the dramedy (even if the film has Dane Cook in it who I think is vile and also psuedo-retarded).

But look for Dan In Real Life to scrape by with barely $10 or $15 million. Not much for mega-movie-star Steve Carrell (that was sarcastic by the way…)

Rounding out the 4th weekend of October is a film from Alison Eastwood (the big guy’s daughter) entitled Rails & Ties and it stars Marcia Gay Harden and Kevin Bacon (two actors who consistently prove that they’ll show up for any movie as long as there is a paycheck and good catering on set…)

Rails & Ties debuted at Telluride and Toronto and might have gotten good reviews, but it will end up on 5 screens and make less box office than what Clint Eastwood took him in salary for Any Which Way But Loose (better than what the chimp took home for that picture at least..)

So there you have it.

Here’s the key to success:

1) Come out with a franchise type film.
2) Pick a strategic date on the calendar to launch the film and then re-launch sequels exactly one year away.
3) Time the DVD release of the first film to coincide with the launch of subsequent sequels and do this for as long as the public will allow you to get away with it.
4) Forget about script development, star availabilities and pretty much everything else and you’ll be OK.

Actually, you won’t be OK. You’ll be very, very rich…

Dane Cook - Rough Around The Edges:  Live From Madison Square Garden

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