Friday Estimates - August 10, 2007
Friday Estimates
1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $19.1M
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $10.415M
3. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) - $3.6M
4. Stardust (Paramount) - $3.05M
5. Underdog (Buena Vista) - $2.23M
6. Hairspray (New Line) - $2.175M
7. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) - $1.93M
8. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $1.6M
9. No Reservations (Warner Bros.) - $1.325M
10. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) - $1.27M
10. Becoming Jane (Miramax) - $1.01M
*Skinwalkers (Lionsgate/After Dark) - $175,000
Rush Hour 3 - “Can you hear the words that are coming out of my mouth?” The Bret Ratner, Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker trio combined for hopefully the last time to earn an impressive $19.1 million yesterday. It looks like Rush Hour 2’s $67+ million plus opening in August 2001 was much too long ago for the momentum to stay. Add to that Chris Tucker’s $20 million price tag, Bret Ratner’s catering and craft service tab and New Line will be happy to see a small profit at the end of the day from their latest Rush Hour film. The good news is that with 3 films the DVD department can create a 3-pack for Wal-Mart and sell that sucker for years and years as a great Christmas gift. Rush Hour 2 grossed $226 million and the first Rush Hour grossed $148 million in 1998. ($33 million opening)
Bourne Ultimatum - After opening huge last Friday, it looks like this film will drop by more than half this weekend. Friday’s tally was 58% short of opening day. Overall, this franchise is a juggernaut however and in eight days has surpassed the $100 million mark. Bourne Identity in 2001 did roughly $121 million and Bourne Supremacy in 2004 did $176 million. Comparing the above two franchises, its clear to see that Bond-like action and momentum not lost by doing a movie every 3 years instead of after a 7 year interval is good business.
Stardust - This movie looks so weird (but has gotten mostly good reviews - currently at 72% on the Tomato-Meter). When I saw the posters for this film in Cannes I thought to myself: “This is a joke right?” - well apparently not. It’s a real movie and it opened poorly considering the $70 million budget. Should finish at about $8 or 9 million this weekend and will be lucky to get to $20 or $25 million all-told. I suspect that the great majority of film-goers on opening day went based on Robert De Niro’s participation. Although the superb cast (Peter O’Toole, Ian McKellan, Ricky Gervais and Michelle Pfeiffer) is interesting as is the work of director Matthew Vaughn (Layer Cake) - this is the type of film in my opinion that executives should get fired for.
Daddy Day Camp - Opening on Wednesday to take advantage of the last summer school holiday days, this sequel only managed a pathetic $773K on opening day and a meager $710K on Thursday. Adding a measly $1.27 million on Friday, the film will be lucky to reach Monday with more than $5 million. So next time you tell me Cuba Gooding Jr. is the same as Eddie Murphy, I will tell you to look at Daddy Day Care’s $104 million box office total from 2003 ($27 million opening.)
El Cantante - The J-Lo & Marc Anthony super-epic dropped 65% from its opening day total on 5 fewer screens (537) to reach a 7 day total of $4.6 million. Look for this film to reach an ultimate of $7 million or so.
I Know Who Killed Me - This Lindsay Lohan “masterpiece” dropped 71% from opening day to last Friday on 1,320 screens. The film’s box office and screen count for yesterday are not available yet, but the current box office total of $6.9 million is indicative that the film will probably end up at around $8 million or so.
Tags: box office estimates, rush hour 3, bourne ultimatum, eddie murphy, cuba gooding jr., robert deniro, stardust, daddy day camp, the simpsons, harry potter, hairspray
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