Weekend Estimates for July 27-29, 2007
Weekend Estimates
1. The Simpsons $71.85M
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry $19.06M
3. Harry Potter $17.07M
4. Hairspray $15.55M
5. No Reservations $11.8M
6. Transformers $11.5M
7. Ratatouille $7.2M
8. Live Free or Die Hard $5.6M
9. I Know Who Killed Me $3.4M
10. Who’s Your Caddy? $2.9M
11. Rescue Dawn $1.65M
12. License to Wed $1.3M
13. Sunshine $1.3M
14. 1408 $1.2M
15. Knocked Up $1.2M
16. Sicko $1.2M
17. Evan Almighty $1.1M
The Openers
The Simpsons performed huge this weekend exceeding all analysts’ expectations with a bonanza of $70M plus. As the film plays to families its likely to have good running legs and you can look for a low drop off next week as THE BOURNE SUPREMACY opens big next week but doesn’t take much of the core audience away from THE SIMPSONS revenue stream.
No Reservations did better than BOPsy expected it would do, but not as good as Steve Mason from Fantasy Moguls had predicted. Overall a good showing from the counter-programmed romance film with Catherine Zeta Jones and Aaron Eckhart.
I Know Who Killed Me didn’t do as well as most prediction services had anticipated despite a positive Friday night showing. Could be that either the lookey-loo’s came out on Friday and/or that negative word of mouth had spread to the Saturday night showing. Regardless, the estimate number is one we will re-check for you on Monday to verify its accuracy. The biggest concern for the distributor on this film will be the per screen average which although not great is better than 4 of the films above it in the Top 10 which could perhaps benefit the lower screen count for release week.
Who’s Your Caddy bounced back from a weak Friday night on Saturday and came out with a decent showing although what concerns me most about this film is the utter lack of an international market for a sports film with urban stars in it.
The Hold-Overs
Transformers - in 4 weeks this film has neared the $300M domestic mark with a current running total of $285M. This film is near $200M international and should end up with $520M+ worldwide. With a high production budget of $150 million, film-makers should see a final profit after all revenue streams of at least $100 million which on this film is extremely good due to the fact that none of the stars are gross point back-end earners. (Just imagine if they had cast Brad Pitt or Tom Cruise in one of the roles, 1/3 of the profits would be gone!)
Live Free or Die Hard - although not huge, the numbers that impress about this film are the drop of 25% in week 5 for this film that has now surpassed the $125 million mark domestically. International numbers here will dwarf domestic (current Int’l numbers are over $160 million) and therefore this $110 million budget film will be profitable for Fox and for Bruce Willis personally.
Sicko - The Michael Moore message documentary has now crossed $21.5 million in box office for distributor Lionsgate in 6 weeks of release. The documentary should surpass Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth’s $24M box office and become the third highest documentary film of all time (#1 is Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11 with a box office of $119M and #2 is March of the Penguins with $77M.) Michael Moore’s dominance of the documentary category is impressive as he owns the #1 doc of all time, as well as Sicko which will be #3 as well as #5 Bowling for Columbine ($21.6M) and #12 Roger and Me ($6.7M)
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