Much Ado About I Know Who Killed Me
Was all the hype good or bad for the prospects of I KNOW WHO KILLED ME’s launch this Friday?
Our crack staff analyzed thousands and thousands of pieces of data and has provided us with a conclusive report. Most useful of course are a look at the tracking reports from pre-Lindsay Lohan meltdown on Monday evening combined with arrest and rehab stint and the Tracking results which looked at the situation after that incident.
What surprises me most about the numbers pre and post-arrest are that they are not as dramatic as I would have thought them to be. This can be explained by several things:
1. Its possible that the movie itself is not as associated with Lindsay Lohan the actress and therefore many people may have heard about her incident on Monday and just not been able to correlate it to the film’s release this Friday.
2. Similarly, there could be so low awareness of this film due to what seems to be Sony’s reduced marketing spend on the film that it is just a blip on what is the Lindsay Lohan public opinion radar.
3. Or a hybrid of the two combined with other possible explanations such as the people polled already had a negative opinion of the movie and the materials and the lead actress that this film was written off by most Americans before it ever even had a chance.
Anyhow, let’s look at the numbers pre and post Monday:
On Monday the public was uniformly unaware of I KNOW WHO KILLED ME without being prompted about it further with facts and details, this number jumped only slightly to about 1% of Americans with Young Females being the most Aware in this way.
With regard to some “Awareness” with slight prompting, the numbers from Monday show that 45% of Americans were “Aware” of the film and that jumped up 10% to 55% because of the tabloid coverage of the arrest on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Perhaps more interestingly are the numbers that look at the specific opinion Americans had of the film based on the materials and the package that the film presented towards them. These numbers are not surprisingly lower than on Monday currently as about 3% to 5% of those interested in seeing the film on Monday were less intersted currently.
Conversely, the negative interest in the film also increased slightly, but the turn-off most affected people over the age of 25 and didn’t really damage the core audience of young females that had been tracking for this film the best.
This close to a release though, the numbers that studio execs look most closely at are called “First Choice” and these are numbers that provide context within the competitive environment of movies playing, which would the person in question choose to view. The numbers here went down overall but were strengthened by the core audience of Young Females from 2% to 5% and about 2 points in the 17-20 year old category.
Sure, the numbers are still not impressive and the film’s chances prior to Monday were not very good facing stiff competition lead by THE SIMPSONS, followed by the urban golf comedy WHO’S YOUR CADDY and NO RESERVATIONS, but it looks as though what has happened to the minds of those polled is that there opinion as to whether to see the movie has strengthened to either a firm Yes or a firm No.
The next obstacle for a film with so much batting against it with regard to schedule and timing is to hope that the film plays best to the target audience. (Not me although sometimes I do fancy myself to be a young school girl…. la dee da…)
Because of the fact that I KNOW WHO KILLED ME is on 1,500 screens, I’d imagine it would need to earn at least a $3,000 per screen average in order to survive next week’s onslaught of films (Bourne Ultimatum on 3,500+, Underdog on 2,800 screens, Hot Rod on 2,500 screens, Bratz on 1,750 screens, and El Cantante on 600 screens.) Of which HOT ROD and BRATZ may present the most direct threat to I KNOW WHO KILLED ME and I have seen occurences where and under-performing film was taken off screens despite the two-week guaranteed commitment the exhibitors had made.
Especially in the case of the Lohan-incident, exhibitors could be justified in renegging on their deal with Sony’s domestic arm by citing the incident as bad for business and for their reputations. On the other hand, if high-per screen averages are earned this weekend, we can then expect a possible flip-side to the bad publicity that the film and actress have recieved courtesy of the young actress’ penchant for late night alcohol-fuelled driving and drama.
Tags: Lindsay Lohan, I Know Who Killed Me
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